Regarding, in the Sam Harris section, the estimates back in April and May of 2020 of how many people would die, you need to decide if you are talking about deaths over one year or three years, or 12 years or until it is eradicated from the face of the Earth. Which is it you are referring to? It sounds like you are taking 3 1/2 years since Jay noted that "1.2 million people have died thus far" and that is what you are comparing to Jay's and the other people's predictions.
I can assure you not any where near 1.2 million people have died from Covid or, at the end of 2022, 1.1 million. The number is more like 145,000 over 2020, 2021, and 2022 and that is "with" and "from". I show how I arrived at 145,000 in my book. The US numbers were exaggerated because the powers that be wanted them to be fear-inducing and so they created a system of threats and bribes to make it happen. Everyone is familiar with the increased reimbursement for testing, calling the diagnosis C-19 based on the PCR result- notoriously misleading-, intubating patients, etc. Moreover, the total of 145,000 includes the deaths that arose because five governors sent vulnerable patients back to nursing homes where active cases waited- estimated at 25,000 in New York alone, say 35,000 total. Also included in the 145,000 are iatrogenic deaths from ventilator use , use of Remdesivir and neglect (Some patients died of dehydration because caregivers were afraid to go into their rooms). I want to remind everyone that 85% of those placed on ventilators, died. After we switched to high flow O2 by NC, carried only 10 % died. As to neglect, it was real and significant. The fear mongering and then the obscene monetary incentives saw to that. What do you want to estimate for these deaths? 15,000 is a very conservative figure which you want in an analysis like this one. That leaves 95,000 over three years or less than 32,000 per year, no more than an average flu season.
This is correct and exactly what one would expect with an infection fatality rate of .1%, the same as the flu!
This leads me to a statement made by Jay in this section. He said he did not know whether the disease would be severe and kill a lot of people, but not spread much, or be very weak but spread easily or somewhere in between. But we knew already knew the answer to this question. When Jay wrote this, we already knew this was a very weak virus but it was spreading rapidly.
Only a thousand or so people were following me at the time so the word didn't get to people who needed to see it but on March 8, I calculated an IFR of .1 - .14 % from the Diamond Princess.. I had to make a few assumptions but they were reasonable ones. Other groups did the same at around this time , such as Russel on March 9, 2020, but they got IFRs in the 1.2 - 2% range from the Diamond Princess; closer to the truth but still 10 -20x too much.
We all liked the Diamond Princess because it was an isolated population and would carry with it, no selection bias. The medical authorities were getting bias because they were only considering patients who had severe enough symptoms to make themselves known. The IFR is defined as people who died divided by all of the people who got infected by the virus. Their denominator was way too small, and thus, their quotient was too high because they neglected people, such as those with no or minimal symptoms, who did not seek medical care and in many cases, did not even know they were infected.
I wrote a long, very detailed comment with links to these papers on Rav's post re Sam's strange adherence to the Narrative as displayed in the Lex Fridman interview on this subject. You wouldn't expect Sam to know at the beginning because he doesn't have any background in any relevant subject but now that people are finally waking up to the reasoning used by me and a few others who understood this he's sticking to his guns in a kind of "Hail Mary" attempt to redeem his reputation. It's truly bizarre.
Dr. Ioannidis's essay of March 17, 2020 was beautifully-reasoned and correct. Again, he got .125 % for the IFR, probably having made assumptions very close to mine for the factor due to there being older passengers on the Diamond Princess compared to the average age in the US and due to the relatively improved health of those older people compared to the general population at that age. Dr. Levitt also of Stanford made a calculation from the Diamond Princess data that resulted in an IFR of .4 - .6 %, if I remember correctly (Jay would know), only a few times higher than that of myself and Dr. Ioannidis.
I got attacked mercilessly by members of my own family for my prediction of "60,000 deaths in the first year and less than half of that is subsequent years". It was right on the money.
I agree that the kind of schadenfreude visited upon the Ball family in their time of grief is reprehensible. We should not be scoring points about who died from the vaccine. But it is not fringe or conspiratorial to point to the alarming signals coming from the VAERS data that points to statistically significant incidences of severe injury and death. One has only to look at the unprecedented numbers of athletes who are dropping dead on the field all over the world. This can't be explained by individual morbidities. These are among the most physically fit people on the planet. Or the number of celebrities who have suddenly developed serious illness post-vaccine. (I direct you to Mark Crispin Miller's compendium of Died Suddenly memorials that he publishes several times a week. This is truly eye-opening and heartbreaking.) Or esteemed British Cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra, who was very pro- this vaccine until his father--a very fit man in his seventies--died of cardiac arrest immediately after vaccination--with no previous cardiac history, This prompted Dr. Malhotra to do an about-face and begin to examine the proliferation of myocarditis cases post-vaccination. He is now calling for the vaccine to be halted, as are many other drs. internationally, although their voices are not being heard.
I think it's time for medical professionals to speak the truth: these vaccines are not safe, and only minimally effective, but the 'safe and effective' meme persists; and no one is looking into the steep rise in excess deaths in 2021-2022. I direct you to Ed Dowd's book Cause Unknown. He lays out the facts, and points to actuarial figures from Life Insurance companies that show a unprecedented number of claims in 2021-2022. The vaccine is the only variable that explains this phenomenon, but no one is willing to say this, or to take a hard look at the statistics. We need a truth telling commission to get to the bottom of all the public health failures during Covid, and why a poorly tested novel gene-based vaccine technology was forced on the public, here and around the world.
Regarding 'vaccine sceptisim in general, I think vaccines have become a religion, and you are considered a fringe kook if you ask any rational question or raise any concerns about the current childhood vaccine schedule. Even the IOM has said it's time to revisit and reevaluate the schedule. And I would add that it's perfectly reasonable to want to revisit childhood vaccines and reevaluate each one as to their relevance and necessity . For example, there are now treatments for Diphtheria--so do we need a Diphtheria vaccine? Is the Measles vaccine really necessary--except for immunocompromised children who might be in danger from what has otherwise always been a normal childhood illness with a very low fatality rate? Why can't wee ask these questions and scrutinize vaccines based on evolving science, the way we would any other medical intervention??
It turns out that, more likely than not, the virus escaped from a lab in China in the autumn of 2019, the virus has a low fatality rate (except in the elderly), masks, social distancing and vaccines do little to prevent spread and vaccines might pose a serious risk to young people.
At first experts denied all these possibilities and now there is no appetite to conduct controlled trials to estimate the vaccine all cause mortality. Similarly we are not sure if early treatment is effective or not. Doctors who tried to find out lost their license.
Sadly, some experts appear to have "feet of clay" while exhibiting a dismisive attitude toward others trying to help.
Those families who refuse to even CONSIDER their loved one was killed by the vaccine, are contributing to the despicable denial promulgated by the Medical Mafia. These family members should be leading the way asking the important questions as to what happened to their loved ones.
But it looks like most of them suffer from Stockholm Syndrome. Many of them will not acknowledge the dangers of these injections as to do so would be a tacit admission that by going along with their doctor's recommendations they contributed to their loved one's demise.
So to castigate those who call out these families is short-sighted. The motives of these critics are pure: they seek to wake people up about the reality of the killer jabs. They are frustrated by the gaslighting which seeks to deflect all legitimate questions regarding why people are suddenly dying out of the blue.
Regarding, in the Sam Harris section, the estimates back in April and May of 2020 of how many people would die, you need to decide if you are talking about deaths over one year or three years, or 12 years or until it is eradicated from the face of the Earth. Which is it you are referring to? It sounds like you are taking 3 1/2 years since Jay noted that "1.2 million people have died thus far" and that is what you are comparing to Jay's and the other people's predictions.
I can assure you not any where near 1.2 million people have died from Covid or, at the end of 2022, 1.1 million. The number is more like 145,000 over 2020, 2021, and 2022 and that is "with" and "from". I show how I arrived at 145,000 in my book. The US numbers were exaggerated because the powers that be wanted them to be fear-inducing and so they created a system of threats and bribes to make it happen. Everyone is familiar with the increased reimbursement for testing, calling the diagnosis C-19 based on the PCR result- notoriously misleading-, intubating patients, etc. Moreover, the total of 145,000 includes the deaths that arose because five governors sent vulnerable patients back to nursing homes where active cases waited- estimated at 25,000 in New York alone, say 35,000 total. Also included in the 145,000 are iatrogenic deaths from ventilator use , use of Remdesivir and neglect (Some patients died of dehydration because caregivers were afraid to go into their rooms). I want to remind everyone that 85% of those placed on ventilators, died. After we switched to high flow O2 by NC, carried only 10 % died. As to neglect, it was real and significant. The fear mongering and then the obscene monetary incentives saw to that. What do you want to estimate for these deaths? 15,000 is a very conservative figure which you want in an analysis like this one. That leaves 95,000 over three years or less than 32,000 per year, no more than an average flu season.
This is correct and exactly what one would expect with an infection fatality rate of .1%, the same as the flu!
This leads me to a statement made by Jay in this section. He said he did not know whether the disease would be severe and kill a lot of people, but not spread much, or be very weak but spread easily or somewhere in between. But we knew already knew the answer to this question. When Jay wrote this, we already knew this was a very weak virus but it was spreading rapidly.
Only a thousand or so people were following me at the time so the word didn't get to people who needed to see it but on March 8, I calculated an IFR of .1 - .14 % from the Diamond Princess.. I had to make a few assumptions but they were reasonable ones. Other groups did the same at around this time , such as Russel on March 9, 2020, but they got IFRs in the 1.2 - 2% range from the Diamond Princess; closer to the truth but still 10 -20x too much.
We all liked the Diamond Princess because it was an isolated population and would carry with it, no selection bias. The medical authorities were getting bias because they were only considering patients who had severe enough symptoms to make themselves known. The IFR is defined as people who died divided by all of the people who got infected by the virus. Their denominator was way too small, and thus, their quotient was too high because they neglected people, such as those with no or minimal symptoms, who did not seek medical care and in many cases, did not even know they were infected.
I wrote a long, very detailed comment with links to these papers on Rav's post re Sam's strange adherence to the Narrative as displayed in the Lex Fridman interview on this subject. You wouldn't expect Sam to know at the beginning because he doesn't have any background in any relevant subject but now that people are finally waking up to the reasoning used by me and a few others who understood this he's sticking to his guns in a kind of "Hail Mary" attempt to redeem his reputation. It's truly bizarre.
Dr. Ioannidis's essay of March 17, 2020 was beautifully-reasoned and correct. Again, he got .125 % for the IFR, probably having made assumptions very close to mine for the factor due to there being older passengers on the Diamond Princess compared to the average age in the US and due to the relatively improved health of those older people compared to the general population at that age. Dr. Levitt also of Stanford made a calculation from the Diamond Princess data that resulted in an IFR of .4 - .6 %, if I remember correctly (Jay would know), only a few times higher than that of myself and Dr. Ioannidis.
I got attacked mercilessly by members of my own family for my prediction of "60,000 deaths in the first year and less than half of that is subsequent years". It was right on the money.
I agree that the kind of schadenfreude visited upon the Ball family in their time of grief is reprehensible. We should not be scoring points about who died from the vaccine. But it is not fringe or conspiratorial to point to the alarming signals coming from the VAERS data that points to statistically significant incidences of severe injury and death. One has only to look at the unprecedented numbers of athletes who are dropping dead on the field all over the world. This can't be explained by individual morbidities. These are among the most physically fit people on the planet. Or the number of celebrities who have suddenly developed serious illness post-vaccine. (I direct you to Mark Crispin Miller's compendium of Died Suddenly memorials that he publishes several times a week. This is truly eye-opening and heartbreaking.) Or esteemed British Cardiologist Dr. Aseem Malhotra, who was very pro- this vaccine until his father--a very fit man in his seventies--died of cardiac arrest immediately after vaccination--with no previous cardiac history, This prompted Dr. Malhotra to do an about-face and begin to examine the proliferation of myocarditis cases post-vaccination. He is now calling for the vaccine to be halted, as are many other drs. internationally, although their voices are not being heard.
I think it's time for medical professionals to speak the truth: these vaccines are not safe, and only minimally effective, but the 'safe and effective' meme persists; and no one is looking into the steep rise in excess deaths in 2021-2022. I direct you to Ed Dowd's book Cause Unknown. He lays out the facts, and points to actuarial figures from Life Insurance companies that show a unprecedented number of claims in 2021-2022. The vaccine is the only variable that explains this phenomenon, but no one is willing to say this, or to take a hard look at the statistics. We need a truth telling commission to get to the bottom of all the public health failures during Covid, and why a poorly tested novel gene-based vaccine technology was forced on the public, here and around the world.
Regarding 'vaccine sceptisim in general, I think vaccines have become a religion, and you are considered a fringe kook if you ask any rational question or raise any concerns about the current childhood vaccine schedule. Even the IOM has said it's time to revisit and reevaluate the schedule. And I would add that it's perfectly reasonable to want to revisit childhood vaccines and reevaluate each one as to their relevance and necessity . For example, there are now treatments for Diphtheria--so do we need a Diphtheria vaccine? Is the Measles vaccine really necessary--except for immunocompromised children who might be in danger from what has otherwise always been a normal childhood illness with a very low fatality rate? Why can't wee ask these questions and scrutinize vaccines based on evolving science, the way we would any other medical intervention??
Thanks for considering my comments.
Connie Tate
It turns out that, more likely than not, the virus escaped from a lab in China in the autumn of 2019, the virus has a low fatality rate (except in the elderly), masks, social distancing and vaccines do little to prevent spread and vaccines might pose a serious risk to young people.
At first experts denied all these possibilities and now there is no appetite to conduct controlled trials to estimate the vaccine all cause mortality. Similarly we are not sure if early treatment is effective or not. Doctors who tried to find out lost their license.
Sadly, some experts appear to have "feet of clay" while exhibiting a dismisive attitude toward others trying to help.
Those families who refuse to even CONSIDER their loved one was killed by the vaccine, are contributing to the despicable denial promulgated by the Medical Mafia. These family members should be leading the way asking the important questions as to what happened to their loved ones.
But it looks like most of them suffer from Stockholm Syndrome. Many of them will not acknowledge the dangers of these injections as to do so would be a tacit admission that by going along with their doctor's recommendations they contributed to their loved one's demise.
So to castigate those who call out these families is short-sighted. The motives of these critics are pure: they seek to wake people up about the reality of the killer jabs. They are frustrated by the gaslighting which seeks to deflect all legitimate questions regarding why people are suddenly dying out of the blue.
Shakespeare meets Vaccine Injury Denial. Listen to Turfseer’s hit song PERCHANCE TO DREAM. https://turfseer.substack.com/p/perchance-to-dream